New York State created new private sector jobs at a little more than half the national pace last year, according to newly released statistics from the state Department of Labor (DOL).
The DOL summary of revised annual averages shows the state gained 62,800 private sector jobs in 2005 -- a growth rate of 0.9 percent, compared to the national rate of 1.7 percent. By comparison, between 2003 and 2004, average annual private sector employment grew 0.8 percent in New York compared to 1.5 percent in the nation as a whole.
Preliminary estimates for January show a slight uptick in the state's year-over-year private sector job growth rate, to 1.1 percent. The national rate for that period was 1.8 percent.
Unemployment heads down
The bright spot in the state employment picture remains the unemployment rate. As of January, the seasonally adjusted rate was 4.6 percent, a tenth of a point lower than the national rate. Unemployment in regions outside New York City (where the rate is usually higher) stood at an ultra-low 4 percent -- a level economists generally associate with virtually "full" employment.
The cloud behind this silver lining is the possibility that there are relatively few people seeking jobs in much of New York State because much of New York State has ... fewer people. This would certainly be consistent with recent population trends, especially upstate. It would also be consistent with upstate's poor overall job growth as measured by the establishment data. The Binghamton, Elmira and Buffalo-Niagara regions all lost jobs last year, while Rochester and Utica-Rome had zero growth. By comparison, Syracuse was moving modestly forward with a 0.8 percent gain, on top of 0.5 percent growth in 2004. Glens Falls, the upstate hot spot with a job growth rate of 3.4 percent in 2004, dropped off to 0.7 percent average growth in 2005.
New York City was the engine of job growth in the Empire State last year. The city's average annual private sector employmenbt in 2005 was up 1.6 percent, just a tenth of a percentage point below the national average. But private employment growth in the suburban regions of Long Island and the lower Hudson Valley cooled off noticeably in 2005 compared to the previous year.
The most troubled major sector of the state's economy remains manufacturing. The 16,900 jobs shed by the state's manufacturers in 2005 represented 20 percent of the nationwide decline, even though New York represented just 4 percent of the national manufacturing job base at the start of the period.
Not much to look forward to?
Employment in New York State is still up a net 645,000 private sector jobs since Governor Pataki took office 11 years ago. However, the average for 2005 was still 127,000 jobs below the 2000 peak. By contrast, the nation as a whole exceeded its pre-2000 private-sector level last year. Moreover, Pataki's 2005-06 Executive Budget forecasts that New York will continue to create jobs at barely half the national rate for the next three years.
