1	What’s Next for Welfare in New York? Lawrence M. Mead Department of Politics New York University
2	Nationally, welfare reform has meant: Tougher requirements on recipients: Work tests. Stronger sanctions. Time limits. More benefits to support work. Favorable effects: Higher work levels. Caseload fall. Lower poverty.
3	New York’s results are similar: Statewide: Caseload fall of around 60%, 1995-2005 Sharp fall in child poverty. In NYC: Sharp rise in work by disadvantaged mothers. All public assistance drops 64%, 1995-2005 Sharp fall in child poverty.
4	But has NYS really reformed? State retained partial sanctions. No time limit. Work issues delegated to counties. Division in Albany. The danger of going backward.
5	Who implemented TANF best?
6	Reauthorization of TANF: Tougher 50% participation standard. 60-month Safety Net now included under the work test. NYS’s participation rate—adequate to date. But reaching 50% will be difficult due to: Partial sanction. Lack of a time limit. The election is unlikely to change this.
7	What to do now? Abandon entitlement: Move to full family sanctions. Phase out 60-month Safety Net for families. Possible lesser changes. Replace entitlement with casework. Improve welfare work programs.
8	Would this cause hardship? The vast majority of recipients can work. Work first is better than training. Honoring the constitutional commitment to the needy.
9	Beyond entitlement: Needy families should go to work first. Then government can do more to help them. Goal should be to: Raise work levels further. Reduce dependency. Rebuild aid on the other side of entitlement. Candidates need to address how to do this. New York could lead.