The latest federal estimates of the 2014-15 change in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by metropolitan area provide a fresh perspective on upstate New York’s persistent economic weakness.
With a real (inflation-adjusted) GDP gain of 2 percent—good enough to rank 154 out of the nation’s 382 largest metros—Albany-Schenectady-Troy was upstate New York’s fastest-growing area last year, according to preliminary estimates from the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The average GDP growth for all U.S. metro areas was 2.5 percent.
After Albany, the next strongest upstate numbers were from Rochester, at 1.6 percent, and Kingston at 1.7 percent. The regional GDP didn’t grow at all in the Syracuse area, and ticked up by just 0.9 percent in Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls. At the other extreme, the economies of three upstate metros—Binghamton, Elmira, and Watertown-Ft. Drum—actually got smaller last year, the BEA numbers indicated. With rankings of 324, 345 and 338, respectively, these three areas were among the worst-performing in the nation.
Since the recession ended in 2009, the compound annual average GDP growth in all U.S. metro areas has been 1.9 percent a year. Among upstate areas, only Albany-Schenectady-Troy, at 1.1 percent, and Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, at 1.0 percent, were even able to exceed (barely) even half that figure. On average, Binghamton’s woeful economy has actually gotten smaller every year in real terms, and Watertown-Ft. Drum’s hasn’t grown at all; the remaining upstate metros had estimated real economic growth of less than 1 percent a year.
The GDP data also provide a breakdown of the sectors adding to or subtracting from growth. In the Albany area, roughly one-third of the GDP growth was attributable to the manufacturing sector—with relatively strong growth as well in the Information and Finance-Insurance-Real Estate sectors. In Buffalo, by contrast, the manufacturing sector shrank and other sectors were weaker; virtually all the growth could be attributed to Finance-Insurance-Real Estate. In Rochester, manufacturing output also was weak (durable goods) or declining (in non-durable goods), but both the FIRE and Professional & Business Services sectors contributed strongly to growth.
More detailed figures can be found in the tables here.
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