The admission of coronavirus-positive patients into New York nursing homes under March 25 guidance from the state Health Department was associated with a statistically significant increase in resident deaths, an Empire Center analysis has found.

The analysis of newly released state data, authored by center senior fellow Bill Hammond and center fellow Ian Kingsbury, shows that each new admission of a COVID-positive patient correlated with .09 additional deaths, with a margin of error of plus or minus 0.05.

It also found that admitting any number of new COVID-positive patients was associated with an average of 4.2 additional deaths per facility (MOE plus or minus 1.9).

The effect was more pronounced upstate—possibly because the pandemic was less severe in that region at the time, so even a single exposure would have had a larger impact on the level of risk.

In the upstate region, facilities that admitted at least one positive patient during this period accounted for 82 percent of coronavirus deaths among nursing home residents, even though they had only 32 percent of the residents.

Statewide, the findings imply that the total of 6,327 COVID-positive admissions between late March and early May were associated with several hundred, and possibly more than 1,000, additional resident deaths.

“The coronavirus pandemic wreaked havoc in nursing homes across the country and around the world, including in jurisdictions that did not adopt policies similar to those in the Cuomo administration’s March 25 guidance memo,” said Hammond. “However, this analysis indicates that the guidance may have made a bad situation worse—and points to the need for further research to determine the best policy before the state faces another pandemic.”

The analysis—which is based on the limited data available—sheds new light on the Cuomo administration’s much-debated March 25 guidance memo, which instructed nursing homes not to refuse the admission of coronavirus-positive patients being discharged from hospitals. The policy—inspired by concern about overcrowding of hospitals at the height of New York’s spring wave—was effectively rescinded on May 10.

The full statistical analysis can be viewed here. The Empire Center’s full database of nursing home fatalities is available here.

The Empire Center, based in Albany, is an independent, not-for-profit, non-partisan think tank dedicated to promoting policies that can make New York a better place to live, work and raise a family.

You may also like

Statement: Independent Pandemic Research Commission is Needed

Today, Governor Kathy Hochul announced that she is issuing an RFP for a review of the state's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic Read More

Statement on the release of new COVID-19 Death Toll data

The Cuomo administration left out many people who died without a test during the early weeks of the pandemic Read More

An Open Letter to Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul

As an organization committed to openness in government, we welcome your commitment to leading a fully transparent administration Read More

Empire Center Appeals COVID FOIL Request Delays

Empire Center has appealed four delayed Freedom of Information Law requests pertaining to state COVID-19 data Read More

Three of 62 Requested COVID Data Sets Made Available through FOIL

Just three COVID data sets have been made fully available in the month since the Empire Center officially submitted 62 FOIL requests Read More

Empire Center Recognized for Exposing NY Nursing Home Coverup

In recognition of the importance of government transparency, the Empire Center has been selected as a finalist for the for its role in exposing the coverup of thousands of COVID-related deaths among New York’s elderly population. In the thick of the Read More

Arbeeny Family and Empire Center Partner to Promote Open Government

The family of Norman Arbeeny has made a generous donation to the Empire Center to bring more openness and transparency to New York State government. Read More

Empire Center Demands Dozens of Coronavirus Data Sets from the NYS DOH

The Empire Center filed 62 Freedom of Information Law requests for coronavirus-related records from the Department of Health. Read More