While state officials have been purposefully tight-lipped about how replacing the Tappan Zee Bridge may impact its $5 toll—or tolls across the state’s Thruway system—one fiscal analyst is confident they will reach double digits.

Nicole Gelinas, an analyst with the fiscally conservative Manhattan Institute, said debt service on $1.6 billion in five-year debt the state issued will reach $176.1 million by 2019—far more than the $129 million the Tappan Zee collected in tolls in 2012. The bridge has an estimated cost of $3.9 billion.

“The Tappan Zee replacement—called the New New York Bridge—really threatens to overwhelm the Thruway’s capital plan over the next decade,” Gelinas said at a forum sponsored by the Empire Center, a fiscally conservative think tank.

“When you think about the fact that they need all of the money they’re collecting now, and then double that, and then you’re going to need more money on top of that in operating costs, it is not unreasonable to see well-above a doubling of the current toll,” Gelinas said. “You will most likely see a double-digit toll somewhere above that. When and how is not clear, but the numbers point to an inevitable picture … It would be prudent for the state to start increasing tolls now, a dollar a year.”

In a statement Wednesday evening, Thruway Authority executive director Tom Madison said his agency “will ensure that any future toll increase on the bridge is dedicated to paying for the new bridge and other regional transportation projects.

“We have consistently said there will be no systemwide toll increase to support the New Yew York Bridge project,” he said.

Governor Andrew Cuomo, during his successful re-election campaign, sidestepped questions about the final toll by saying it was impossible to calculate the toll because the bridge’s final costs—which may be defrayed by additional federal aid—are not yet known.

The state won a $1.6 billion low-interest loan from the federal government that will replace the bonds in 2019. State officials are fighting for the right to use $256 million in money that had been earmarked for clean water projects—which the Environmental Protection Agency disallowed—to defray the overall cost.

Cuomo has said he would like to see some discount for residents of the lower Hudson Valley who commute across the bridge remain even if tolls do rise.

© 2014 Capital New York