A $15 minimum wage could cost New York between 200,000 and 588,800 jobs, according to a new report.
The Empire Center for Public Policy and Washington, D.C.-based American Action Forum published the report showing that a minimum wage increase to $15 as Gov. Andrew Cuomo is pitching now may help workers who are currently employed but would likely have adverse impacts on the economy, nonetheless. Those impacts include a potential loss of 11,300 to 36,900 jobs based on previous studies that provided low-, medium- and high-impact models for the new research. In the end, the new study’s authors say, an increase of the minimum wage is likely to affect the most marginal workers with fewer skills.
Predictably, the study shows that the current lower-wage work force as a whole statewide could benefit from $15 an hour. The study shows a net change in wage earnings of $1,288 to $10,577, though some regions may face a net drop in wage earnings based on the highest-impact models.
What the study does not show is what middle-range increase between $15 and the current minimum wage of $8.75 (soon to be $9) might be best. “I think the sweet spot question is misplaced,” the Empire Center’s E.J. McMahon said at a news conference Thursday. “It is, after all, a big state with a great deal of variety and diversity in the level of what the market wage is. It’s impossible to stand here in Albany and say that the sweet spot is $10.50 — $10.50 where?”
On one end of the debate are labor advocates who say some minimum wage workers are living in poverty and must be subsidized by the government to survive. On the other end are business groups who fear job losses and cost of business increases that will need to be passed on to to the consumer.
The more left-leaning Fiscal Policy Institute published materials when Cuomo announced his $15 minimum wage proposal in September that showed an increase would help boost the purchasing power of some 3 million residents (bolstering job growth because people will be looking to buy more) and realign earnings with cost of living.
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