“Voters Back Millionaire’s Tax 4-1.” That’s one of the headlines on the latest survey of New York State residents by Quinnipiac University’s Polling Institute.

It’s hardly a surprise that most New Yorkers are inclined to favor a tax hike that fewer than 1 percent of them would pay. But perhaps the plurality in support of the tax increase would have been less overwhelming if Quinnipiac had not misrepresented the true size of the state income tax increase that has been proposed by Assembly Democrats.

The complete “Q” question was put this way: “There is a proposal to raise, by nearly 1 percentage point, the state income tax paid by people who earn more than a million dollars a year. Do you support or oppose this proposal?”

The result: 77 percent in favor, only 19 percent opposed.

In fact, as the lead-in to the poll question failed to make clear, it’s the top income tax rate that Assembly Democrats propose raising by nearly 1 percentage point — 0.85 percentage points, to be precise. Filers with incomes over $1 million would become subject to a flat tax rate of 7.7 percent, compared to the current level of 6.85 percent. Their taxes would rise to $77,000 from the current level of $68,500—an increase of 12.4 percent. In other words, the Assembly proposal would raise taxes on targeted wealthy households by more than 12 times as much as implied by the lead-in statement supplied to Quinnipiac poll respondents.

Translated into dollars and cents terms, the difference between the tax rate hike and the resulting increase in tax liability is significant. For a filer with income of exactly $1 million, a tax increase of 1 percent would translate into an added payment of $685. But a tax increase of 12.4 percent would represent a $8,500 surcharge.

A more accurate poll question would have been preceded by this statement: “There is a proposal to raise, by more than 12 percent, the state income taxes paid by people who earn more than a million dollars a year.” The premise could be made more informative — thus producing a more reliable gauge of voter sentiments — if expanded to include an example of what the tax hike would actually mean to a targeted taxpayer, such as the $8,500 surcharge on the $68,500 tax bill cited above.

Given the tiny number of households targeted by the proposed tax hike, and given the natural tendency of many voters to favor soak-the-rich tax policies regardless of economic consequences, a more carefully worded poll question would probably still show a majority in favor of raising taxes on wealthy households. But the 4-1 margin touted in today’s Quinnipiac release reflects loaded questioning as much as true voter attitudes.

About the Author

Tim Hoefer

Tim Hoefer is president & CEO of the Empire Center for Public Policy.

Read more by Tim Hoefer

You may also like

New York’s Proposed ‘MCO Tax’ Would Generate a Fraction of What Lawmakers Expected

The Hochul administration's proposed "MCO tax" would generate far less than the $4 billion in extra federal aid anticipated by state lawmakers when they approved the concept this spring, according to documents obtained by t Read More

Hochul Hides the Specifics of a Looming Tax on Health Insurance

The Hochul administration has requested federal approval for a multibillion-dollar "MCO tax" on health plans without announcing the move or providing details to the public. As by l Read More

New Yorkers’ Health Costs Spiral as Officials Take Credit for ‘Savings’

The latest round of health insurance premium hikes announced by New York regulators adds to evidence that state policies are drowning consumers instead of helping them. Late last mo Read More

Budget Deal Slows Medicaid Growth But Plants Seeds for Future Spending

The growth of New York's Medicaid spending is projected to slow but not stop as Governor Hochul and the Legislature effectively split their differences over health care in the newly enacted state budget. Read More

Albany Lawmakers Push a $4 Billion Tax on Health Insurance

Legislative leaders are proposing an additional $4 billion tax on health insurance plans in the upcoming state budget – but withholding specifics of how it would work. Read More

Hochul Tells It Like It Is

Presenting her budget this week in Albany, Gov. Kathy Hochul delivered more than just a financial plan. She gave the state a refreshing dose of fiscal honesty. “The truth is,” Hochul said, “we can’t spend like there’s no tomorrow, because tom Read More

As migrants flow to NY, so does red ink 

The influx of foreign migrants to New York could cost the state $4.5 billion more than expected next year, Governor Hochul today warned.  Read More

The Bill Arrives: NY Faces $9B Budget Gap Next Year 

New York’s outyear budget gaps, the shortfall between planned state expenses and state tax receipts over the next three years, has exploded to more than $36 billion, just-released documents show.  Read More