The state comptroller’s cash report for the first quarter ought to be coming out any day now — perhaps as soon as today. Tax collections through June are likely to have fallen below the April 1 projections for the quarter, feeding the widespread assumption that the state has a revenue problem. But what about spending? Consider the trend lines in the following chart of projected general fund receipts and disbursements, which was based on enacted budget projections.
As of April, projected budget gaps over the next three years were due mainly to a 31 percent increase in baseline spending. Medicaid and school aid account for roughly three-quarters of that projected growth.
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