The consumer price index fell 1 percent month on month in October, according to Labor. Falling consumer prices, if they continue, worsen New York’s fiscal position.

It would be comforting to say that one month isn’t a trend, except for these photos of hundreds of German-made cars awaiting transport from the ship straight to the warehouse isn’t an indicator of higher demand for much of anything in the near future. Lower demand = lower prices.

What do these falling prices mean, if they continue? Lots of bad things for the economy, of course, because it means that outstanding credit-card debt, mortgage debt, and all the rest becomes more expensive in real terms for people to pay back. It also means that New York’s fixed-rate debt becomes more expensive in real terms for its taxpayers to pay back.

Falling prices also mean that those raises Mayor Bloomberg generously gave out in recent months and weeks become more expensive in real terms. If prices were to drop 1 percent over an entire year, for instance, the 4 percent raises the city awarded the biggest civilian union and several uniformed unions are really 5 percent raises. The mayor cannot say that falling prices were not known as a very real risk when he awarded these raises. Yes, it’s impossible to know the extent of the risk, but it would have been safer to do nothing.

Falling consumer prices, if sustained, also mean that the city’s tax revenues are likely to drop by more than expected, as well. Retailers are already slashing their prices, for example; these price cuts will come through in the sales-tax collections. As for the income tax: employers are more likely to slash employment than wages, but they’ll cut more workers than otherwise in a falling-price environment. Further, employers are also unlikely to award even small raises in an environment of falling prices, since existing wages will actually be higher relative to prices, anyway. Lower nominal wage growth and more job cuts will also come through in income-tax collections, then.

You may also like

Healthcare Highlights in the New State Budget

Governor Hochul's focus on affordability seems to have skipped over the healthcare portions of the new state budget. The deal finalized May 27 Read More

Four Problems with a Statewide Pied-à-Terre Tax

Soon after Governor Hochul floated the idea of a "pied-à-terre" tax in New York City, Albany Sen. Patricia Fahy  proposed to expand the concept to the rest of the state. As with H Read More

Albany Should Listen to Jamie Dimon

In his annual message to shareholders, JP Morgan Chase's chief executive, Jamie Dimon, offered a timely and pointed warning for New York policymakers. It's worth , with emphasis add Read More

Mamdani Gets an Important Tax Fact Wrong

At a hearing in Albany last week, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani lobbied state lawmakers to help him balance the city's finances with a two-percentage-point hike in the city's income tax on people making over $1 million Read More

Budget Update Paints Less Alarming Picture of Federal Health Cuts

A new fiscal report from the state Budget Division suggests federal funding cuts will hit New York's health-care budget less severely than officials have previously warned. A relea Read More

Parsing the Impact of Mamdani’s Tax Hike Plans

The front-running candidate for New York City mayor, Zohran Mamdani, has said he can finance his costly campaign promises – including free buses and universal child care – by taxing only a sliver of the city's residents Read More

Why New York’s Health Premiums Keep Going Up

New Yorkers continue to face some of the costliest health premiums in the U.S., and the insurance industry's recently finalized rate applications shed light on why that is. In summa Read More

How Immigrants Became a Cash Cow for New York’s Essential Plan

The Hochul administration's move to shrink the Essential Plan in response to federal budget cuts has exposed a surprising reality: For the past decade, immigrants have been a cash c Read More