The full toll of the coronavirus pandemic in New York is likely thousands higher than the official death tallies, according to newly released federal data.
The Centers for Disease Control recorded a nationwide spike in weekly deaths from all causes over the past two months that was particularly sharp in New York, an epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak.
The surge began in early March, around the time the state discovered its first coronavirus cases, and hit a peak of 10,745 deaths statewide during the week ending April 11. That was about 7,700 or 250 percent more than normal for the time of year.
This is an installment in a special series of #NYCoronavirus chronicles by Empire Center analysts, focused on New York’s state and local policy response to the Coronavirus pandemic.
The state-reported COVID-19 death toll during that week was 5,226, leaving about 2,500 deaths unaccounted for.
Cumulatively, the CDC data show that 39,000 people died in New York between March 8 and April 18. That was more than double the usual number and about 6,300 higher than the state Health Department’s tally of COVID-19 casualties at that point. To put it another way, 21,000 more New Yorkers than usual died over the past two months, which is 0.1% of the state’s population.
About three-quarters of the excess deaths occurred in New York City, which is roughly proportionate to its share of coronavirus fatalities as recorded by the state Health Department. A more detailed breakdown for other regions is not possible because neither the CDC nor the state Health Department routinely posts mortality numbers by county.
City officials have maintained their own counts, including a tally of “probable” COVID-19 cases that were not confirmed by testing. As shown in the chart below, even that expanded tally does not account for all of the excess deaths recorded by the CDC.
Many of the excess deaths were likely people who had coronavirus infections that went unconfirmed or unrecognized. Other deaths may be indirectly related to the pandemic, such as people who were turned away by overwhelmed emergency rooms, or who were leery of seeking care in the first place.
Whatever the explanation, a similar pattern has been seen across the country.
A final caveat: The CDC warns that its mortality data, which is gathered from state and local governments across the country, “may be incomplete and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods.” In other words, the grim toll is likely to get larger still.
About the Author
You may also like
The State’s Vaccine Appointment System Was Not Ready for Prime Time
The two top priorities Governor Cuomo identified in his State of the State speech Monday morning were "Defeat COVID" and "Vaccinate New York." Read More
New York Is Still Waiting For a Viable COVID-19 Vaccination Plan
Going on four weeks into what should have been a mass vaccination program, it's increasingly clear that the Cuomo administration did not have – and does not have – an adequate plan for immunizing 20 million New Yorkers. Read More
The Cuomo Administration Resists Sharing Records of its Vaccine Review
After second-guessing the FDA with its own vaccine task force, the Cuomo administration is declining to share even basic information about that panel's approval process until mid-February. Read More
Cuomo’s Summary of COVID-19 Contact Tracing Data Raises More Questions Than It Answers
The Cuomo administration's recently released summary of contact tracing data was a tantalizing disappointment. Information that could have clarified the risks of different activities during the coronavirus pandemic was pres Read More
The Pending Pharmacy ‘Carve-Out’ Could Increase Medicaid Costs Rather than Controlling Them
A pending change to New York's Medicaid program known as the pharmacy "carve-out" is drawing opposition from a range of interests, including insurers, AIDS clinics and the health-care labor union 1199 SEIU.
Read More
In Spite of Pandemic Precautions, COVID-19 is Surging in New York’s Nursing Homes Again
As the coronavirus pandemic resurges across New York, residents of nursing homes are once again bearing the brunt.
During the five-week period from Oct. 25 to Nov. 29, nursing home Read More
Beyond a Bailout, New York Needs Relief from Medicaid ‘Maintenance of Effort’ Rules
Beyond providing direct aid, there's another way the relief package being debated in Washington can and should boost New York's bottom line: by loosening the federal reins on Medicaid.
Read More
As a Supreme Court Ruling Loomed, Cuomo Bent His Own Rules on COVID ‘Clusters’
In the midst of the constitutional showdown over his pandemic policies, Governor Cuomo made changes to a disputed Brooklyn 'cluster zone' that seemed to contradict his own declared guidelines.
Read More