New York’s outyear budget gaps, the shortfall between planned state expenses and state tax receipts over the next three years, has exploded to more than $36 billion, just-released documents show.

The FY24 Enacted Budget Financial Plan, issued Friday afternoon by the state Division of the Budget (DOB), shows expenses will exceed revenues by $9.1 billion in fiscal 2025—the budget year for which Governor Hochul will present her spending plan in January. The gaps grow to more than $13 billion in fiscal 2026 and 2027.

Hochul’s FY24 budget proposal had anticipated smaller, more manageable gaps, beginning with $5.1 billion in fiscal 2025 and totaling $21 billion over the three years. The gap has widened for two reasons: the just-adopted state budget hiked spending $2 billion per year above what Hochul originally proposed, and DOB has since revised forecast tax receipts down significantly—including a $3 billion downgrade for the current fiscal year. That latter change comes after the state’s April tax collections came in $4 billion below what had been forecast in January.

New York state government isn’t in immediate danger of running out of money thanks to moves by Governors Andrew Cuomo and Hochul to build up reserves, with about $19 billion available. Tapping this nest egg outside a major emergency or economic downturn, however, would leave the state poorly positioned when such an event inevitably occurs—and it wouldn’t be enough to cover even two years of spending.

The new gap calculation is the clearest evidence to date that Albany’s three-year spending binge, which has seen both school aid and Medicaid costs explode and has been partially fueled by personal income and business tax hikes, can’t be sustained.

You may also like

Albany Should Listen to Jamie Dimon

In his annual message to shareholders, JP Morgan Chase's chief executive, Jamie Dimon, offered a timely and pointed warning for New York policymakers. It's worth , with emphasis add Read More

Albany Wavers on Shutting Down a Medicaid Racket

As Washington threatens to crack down on fraud and abuse in New York's Medicaid program, state legislators are doing their best to demonstrate why federal intervention is needed. A Read More

Ideas for Cleaning Up New York Medicaid

As the Trump administration cracks down on fraud, waste and abuse in Medicaid, New York is a logical place to start. New York spends far more Read More

Emails Conflict with Health Commissioner’s Testimony on CDPAP

The company selected to manage an $11 billion Medicaid home-care program discussed the job in detail with top Health Department officials – and submitted a 46-page takeover plan – two weeks before state lawmakers author Read More

Mamdani Gets an Important Tax Fact Wrong

At a hearing in Albany last week, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani lobbied state lawmakers to help him balance the city's finances with a two-percentage-point hike in the city's income tax on people making over $1 million Read More

Is Hochul Really Going to Shut Down the Essential Plan?

Governor Hochul is hingeing a big chunk of her budget – and the state's health-care system – on a politically fraught gambit: asking the Trump administration to help cover immigrants. Read More

State Delays Disclosing Emails About $1B Home Health Contract

For a third time the state Health Department has postponed releasing records related to a disputed $1 billion Medicaid contract, saying it needs another six weeks or more to locate and redact the materials in question. Read More

Email Confirms Early Contact Between NY Officials and CDPAP Contractor

State officials met with the ultimate winner of a $1 billion Medicaid contract two weeks before the Legislature authorized bidding on the job as part of the state's 2024-25 budget, an email obtained by the Empire Center sho Read More