Most parts of New York remain less populated in 2024 than they were in 2020 as the state struggled to recover from Covid-19, according to an analysis of Census Bureau data.

This was especially true for New York City, the pandemic’s early epicenter. Although the city’s population climbed in 2023* and 2024, it had gained back only about one-third of what it lost in 2021 and 2022 – and remained down by 262,000 residents or 3 percent since the start of the decade.

Over the same period, the mid-Hudson region and Long Island saw modest growth of 1 percent, likely due to city residents relocating to the suburbs. Upstate’s population dipped 0.4 percent, continuing its long-term trend of decline.

The state as a whole was down by 238,000 residents or 1.2 percent over the four-year stretch, even as the U.S. population rose by 2.6 percent.

Overall, New York lost more population in the first four years of this decade than any other state except West Virginia – a harbinger that New York is likely to forfeit more seats in Congress (and in the Electoral College) after the next decennial census.

These trends point to the need for a new direction in state and city policy, one that prioritizes affordability and economic opportunity while avoiding the excessive taxes and regulations that make it hard to live and do business in New York.

The Census Bureau tracks four “components” of population change: births, deaths, international migration and “domestic migration” from one state to another. It refers to the net total of births and deaths as “natural change” and the net total of international and domestic migration as “net migration.”

As seen in the the table below, the major driver of New York’s population trends has been domestic outmigration. The number of residents moving away from the state exceeded the number moving in by almost 900,000 over the four years. That included net losses of about 300,000 each in 2021 and 2022, the two largest annual figures since the 1970s.

According to census estimates for the first three years of the decade, the most popular destination for departing New Yorkers was Florida, followed by New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Connecticut.

At the same time, the state saw an influx of 518,000 foreign immigrants over the four-year period, including a record surge of 207,000 in 2024 alone. 

Despite a spike in mortality during the pandemic, statewide births still outnumbered deaths by 145,000.

County-level population estimates show that Staten Island was the only New York City borough to avoid population loss from 2020 to 2024, growing by a modest 0.6 percent or 3,100 residents. The Bronx was hardest hit, losing 5.1 percent of its residents, while Brooklyn was down 3.6 percent,  Queens was down 3.1 percent and Manhattan was down 1.1 percent.

The Bronx has also been the slowest to bounce back, regaining in 2023 and 2024 just 1 percent of its losses in 2021 and 2022. That compares to 77 percent for Manhattan, 30 percent for Queens and 17 percent for Brooklyn.

Outside the city, Monroe and Onondaga counties saw the largest population declines in nominal terms, losing 5,500 and 4,400 residents, respectively. The counties with the biggest gains were Suffolk, which added 13,700 residents, followed by Orange and Rockland, which added about 10,800 each.

Proportionally, the largest losses outside New York City were in Schuyler County  (-4.1 percent), Chemung County (-3.1 percent) and Chenango County (-2.8 percent).

The largest percentage gains were in Tompkins County (+5.8 percent), Otsego County (+3.7 percent) and Rockland County (+3.2 percent).

At the local level, the Rockland County village of Kiryas Joel, an Orthodox Jewish enclave, showed the biggest population gains both in both nominal and proportional terms, growing by 10,400 residents or 31 percent from 2020 to 2024.

The municipalities outside New York City that lost the most residents were Rochester, down 3,600, Mount Vernon, down 1,600, and Utica, down 1,500.

Population stagnation is a long-standing phenomenon for upstate, a byproduct of a chronically weak economy and an aging population. From 2020 to 2024, deaths outnumbered births in 44 of the 48 counties outside the metropolitan region.

The lingering losses in New York City present a new challenge. The city went from being the fastest-growing region of the state through the previous decade to the fastest-shrinking region in 2021 and 2022. Although it grew by 1.5 percent over the subsequent two years – and once again led the state – that rate still lagged the national average of 1.8 percent.

The shift toward working from home has undoubtedly played a role, but New York City appears to have been affected more than other major urban centers. Among the 11 U.S. cities with populations of 1 million or more, New York’s decline of 3 percent was by far the largest.

*The Census Bureau has revised its estimates for 2023, which initially showed population declines in 2023 for New York City and the state as a whole.

Update: John Bacheller of Policy By Numbers raises a warning about the accuracy of Census Bureau data used in this report, an issue he has been following closely. In a 2022 report, the bureau itself found that the 2020 decennial census, conducted in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, significantly overcounted the population of eight states, including New York, and undercounted six others – errors that likely affect the accuracy of the annual estimates for 2021 through 2024. Those problems notwithstanding, the Census Bureau remains the only source for comprehensive population data in the U.S.