The Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA)’s proposed capital program falls short of what downstate’s transit assets need, and, what’s more, the MTA can’t even afford the insufficient amount of spending it has proposed, said state Deputy Comptroller Ken Bleiwas in a new report.

The MTA proposes to spend $28 billion over the next five years, only enough to fulfill for 67 percent of the authority’s capital requirements. This, despite the fact that the MTA has left Phase II of the Second Avenue Subway (the part that actually brings it downtown, which is sort of the point) out of the plan.

Plus, in light of recent cost and time overruns, it’s doubtful that the MTA can get its projected 67 percent of needed work done for the allocated amount of money. Phase I of the Second Avenue Subway was supposed to cost $3.8 billion and be done by 2012; now it’s costing $4.5 billion and will be done (?) by 2016.

Money for this likely insufficient capital plan is already falling short, with a projected $9.9 billion, or 35 percent, deficit.

But the real shortfall likely will be higher. The MTA expects $600 million from asset sales and from “operating budget resources.” But funding for the operating budget itself is still an open question, despite the May bailout.

The authority also expects a bigger-than-usual contribution from the feds.

The MTA’s capital plan itself will put more pressure on the operating budget. Bleiwas notes that the MTA expects to raise $16.5 billion in new debt by 2014, pushing annual debt costs up from $1.5 billion this year (already up by nearly half in four years) to nearly $2.8 billion by then.

Skimping on capital, too, hurts the operating budget by pushing up annual maintenance costs.

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