Newly released Census estimates show New York is still the nation’s third most populous state, barely ahead of Florida. However, if total population growth trends continue at the average rate of the past three years, Florida will overtake New York by mid-2014, the data indicate. As of July 1, New York’s estimated population was 19.65 million, and Florida’s was 19.55 million.

When the April 2010 census was taken, New York had 576,792 more residents than Florida. As of July 1, the gap had shrunk to 98,267, the new data suggest. Additional Census data on the components of change in state population estimates, including migration out of and into each state, are not scheduled for release until late January. Those numbers have previously shown that New York’s relative population decline over the past 50 years has been due primarily to an exceptionally large “net domestic migration” loss of residents to other states, including Florida.

Slow growth

The chart below shows the rate of change in total population for all 50 states and the District of Columbia over the past three years, going back to the 2010 Census. New York’s 1.4 percent growth rate (the red bar below) trailed 32 other states and D.C., and was just over one-half the national growth rate of 2.4 percent.


Note: Riding an oil and gas boom, North Dakota has had the highest population growth since 2010, trailed narrowly by D.C., which is has been riding a tax-money-extraction boom since the Great Recession.  Texas, Utah, Colorado and Florida also had growth rates of 4 percent of better in the past three years. At the bottom of the list was Rhode Island, the only net population loser since 2010.

About the Author

E.J. McMahon

Edmund J. McMahon is Empire Center's founder and a senior fellow.

Read more by E.J. McMahon

You may also like

Pandemic-driven population shift within NYS winds down — and flight to rest of US continues

New York City and its suburbs accounted for most of New York State’s during the second year of the pandemic, according to the latest county-level estimates from the Census Bureau. for the 12 months ending last July 1 indicate the city’s populatio Read More

NY’s pre-Covid tax base drain confirmed in new comptroller’s report

New York was a net loser of income tax filers to other states even in the five years leading up to the pandemic disruption of 2020 Read More

Here’s a tool for sorting out New York’s local population trends

Federal census data for 2020 indicate New York State's total population increased by 823,147 residents, or 4 percent, since 2010. Population gains over the last decade were concentrated in urban areas and inner suburbs, while most rural communities saw th Read More

Remote Threat 

Remote work and a more mobile professional class will increase the speed and scope of New York's ongoing out migration. Read More

NY’s getting a bit grayer

The elderly share of America's population has been growing—but New York is graying more slowly. That’s among the trends to be gleaned from the latest U.S. Census estimates of population distributions by age group at the state and county level. Read More

Jobs grow further apart in NY

Newly revised data from the state Labor Department indicate New York's regional economic performance gap has grown larger in the last year. On a year-to-year basis, the state gained 103,900 private-sector jobs in January—a growth rate of 1.3 percent at a time when the U.S. as a whole was growing by 2.1 percent, according to the state Labor Department's monthly jobs report. Read More

The (continued) graying of NY

Compared to national and statewide averages, rural counties in upstate New York have a much larger share of residents aged 65 and older, the latest Census Bureau estimates show. The 65+ population was 15.3 percent of the U.S. total as of mid-2016, according to census data released today. The Empire State as a whole was just a hair above the national average, with 15.4 percent of New Yorkers falling into the age category that demographers generally tag as elderly. Read More

How “North NY” would stack up

If the New York counties north of the New York City metro region were to split off and become a separate state, how would it rank nationally? The question is prompted by news accounts of last weekend's Southern Tier rally by a coalition of groups whose members want upstate to secede from the rest of New York. Not all the advocates favor creation of a separate state, however. Some favor absorption into Pennsylvania, while others suggest avoiding the constitutional hurdles of full statehood by changing New York's own constitution to create two "autonomous regions" within the outline of a "token" remaining single state. In addition, their definitions of "upstate" seem to differ. Read More