NY’s growth gap

by E.J. McMahon |  | NY Torch

Screen-Shot-2014-06-23-at-1.21.47-PM-150x150The growth prospects for New York’s metropolitan areas between 2013 and 2020 range from dismal upstate to mediocre downstate, according to a study issued by the U.S. Conference of Mayors.

As shown in the following chart from today’s Wall Street Journal (subscription required) report on the study, five upstate New York metro areas were among the 10 areas nationwide with the lowest projected growth rates over the seven-year period featured in an economic analysis conducted for the Conference of Mayors by the economic consulting group IHS Global Insights. Binghamton and Utica-Rome, consistently among the state’s slowest-growing areas in recent years, were at the very bottom.

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The New York City metro area, including Long Island and northern New Jersey, had the strongest outlook of any area in New York State, with a projected average annual growth rate of 2.4 percent. But that was below the median growth projection of 2.6 percent, good enough for a ranking of only 240 230 out of 363 large metro areas in the study. Next best in New York was Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, ranked 292 with a projected growth of 2.1 percent.

The Albany-Schenectady-Troy area has a projected growth rate of 1.8 percent, ranking at 338, despite a massive public investment in high-tech manufacturing and research. Rochester (1.7 percent), Syracuse (1.7 percent), Ithaca (1.6 percent), Glens Falls (1.5 percent) also were well within the lowest-ranking 10 percent of metro areas on the list.

The top spots on the ranking of future growth were dominated by metro areas in Texas, Utah, Florida and other Sunbelt states. But the weakness of New York regions can’t simply be chalked up to climate; for example, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin all have at least some metro areas with projected growth rates above the national median, including a few in the top 100.

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- E.J. McMahon is the Research Director at the Empire Center for Public Policy.