Governor Paterson’s Mid-Year Budget Update projects that New York State will lose more than 160,000 jobs during “the current downturn.” But if history is any guide, that could turn out to be very optimistic. As illustrated below, the state lost 500,000 private sector jobs in 1990-93, and needed nine years to fully recover to average 1989 employment levels. Private job losses reached 300,000 during the downturn of 2001-03, and it was six years before employment levels bounced back to the 2000 peak.
Those previous downturns originated in the financial sector, coinciding with relatively mild national recessions, and their local and regional impacts were exacerbated by significant New York State and New York City tax increases. But this isn’t just another cyclical (i.e., temporary) downturn. Quite aside from the challenges posed by a global and national recession, New York’s state and city governments need to reorder priorities and restructure their budgets to reflect the new long-term reality of a leaner, less profitable and more heavily regulated Wall Street. If state and city officials respond as they did in the early 1990s, the job losses could be more severe and longer-lasting than anything New York has experienced since the Great Depression.
You may also like
At mid-year, NY still far below most states in pandemic jobs recovery
New York has added private-sector jobs in all but three of the 38 months since the COVID-19 outbreak of March 2020—but the Empire State remains below its pre-pandemic employment level and continues to trail the national recovery.
On a seasonally adju Read More
At end of ’22, NY still near bottom in pandemic recovery
The more time passes since the spring 2020 Covid-19 outbreak, the more New York stands out among all states for the weakness of its post-pandemic employment recovery.
As of December, seasonally adjusted private employment in New York was still nearly 2 Read More
As leaves turn, NY’s post-pandemic recovery still has very far to go
New York was the national epicenter of the pandemic, and Governor Cuomo's "New York State on PAUSE" business shutdowns and other restrictions led, in short order, to the loss of nearly 2 million jobs in the first full month after the infection began spreading in the New York City area. Read More
More NY job gains in August—but employment needs to rise a lot further
New York's jobs report for August looked relatively strong—but only by comparison, that is, with what was generally regarded as a disappointing national number. On a seasonally adjusted basis, New York gained 28,000 private-sector jobs last month—a growth rate of 0.4 percent, according to preliminary monthly estimates from the state Labor Department. Read More
New York’s Hospital Industry Ranks Near the Bottom of Two Quality Report Cards
New York's hospitals remain near the bottom of two quality report cards. The state's hospitals received the lowest rate of any state except Nevada and DC. Read More
NY Post-Pandemic Employment Tide Stopped Rising At Year’s End
New York's post-pandemic employment recovery came to a halt and moved into reverse in December, according to the state's for the final month of COVID-wracked 2020.
Private payroll employment in December was 966,000 jobs below the level of the previous Read More
As a Supreme Court Ruling Loomed, Cuomo Bent His Own Rules on COVID ‘Clusters’
In the midst of the constitutional showdown over his pandemic policies, Governor Cuomo made changes to a disputed Brooklyn 'cluster zone' that seemed to contradict his own declared guidelines.
Read More
Fewer Workers, Not More Jobs, Explains NY’s September Unemployment Rate Drop
New York State's unemployment rate has fallen sharply since the economically devastating pandemic lockdown last spring. But as state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli points out in his latest economic report, the jobless rate doesn't tell the whole story. Read More