Since 2000, New York has lost more than 2 million residents to other states. This net domestic migration outflow, which dates back to the 1960s, is a major reason why the Empire State has fallen to fourth place in national population rankings, behind California, Texas and Florida.
The Empire Center closely tracks demographic trends, on both a statewide and regional basis, as the ultimate indicator of the state’s attractiveness as a place to live, work and raise a family. Here are links to some of our reports on the subject over the past 10 years:
A huge outflow of residents from New York City accounted for nearly all of New York State's record single-year population loss following the Covid-19 outbreak Read More
Extending the budget window reveals large, yawning budget gaps growing from nearly $8 billion in 2026 to nearly $20 billion by the end of the decade. Read More
New York's exceptionally wealthy state tax base is also exceptionally fragile, due to its heavy dependence on the highly volatile (and portable) investment-driven incomes of Wall Street workers and fund managers. Read More
E.J. McMahon, research director at the Empire Center for Public Policy, had presented estimates to the joint legislative fiscal committees earlier this year on the potential consequences of departures. He predicted that if the state lost 10% of residents with median adjusted gross income of more than $10 million, New York would lose $265 million in tax revenue, more than the entire state-funded budget for the Department of Environmental Conservation. (The total state budget is $175 billion.) Read More
There has also been declining enrollment at New York's public colleges, mainly at its community colleges. At public schools, the 2.6 million students is the lowest in nearly 30 years, according to the Empire Center for New York State Policy. Read More
Government watchdog E.J. McMahon, of the Empire Center, warned that the Amazon ordeal would be noticed by other firms.
“The Amazon fiasco definitely sent a signal, and it’s not a good signal from multiple angles,” McMahon said.
“Governor DeSantis couldn’t have picked a better time to work on poaching New York businesses, especially high earners in finance. More than a few will no doubt find it tempting to at least listen to Florida’s pitch.” Read More