leavingny1-150x150-6875853Since 2000, New York has lost more than 2 million residents to other states. This net domestic migration outflow, which dates back to the 1960s, is a major reason why the Empire State has fallen to fourth place in national population rankings, behind California, Texas and Florida.

The Empire Center closely tracks demographic trends, on both a statewide and regional basis, as the ultimate indicator of the state’s attractiveness as a place to live, work and raise a family. Here are links to some of our reports on the subject over the past 10 years:

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NYC’s out-migration fueled NY state’s record population drop in 2020-21

A huge outflow of residents from New York City accounted for nearly all of New York State's record single-year population loss following the Covid-19 outbreak Read More

Report Reveals Albany’s Balanced Budget a Gimmick

Extending the budget window reveals large, yawning budget gaps growing from nearly $8 billion in 2026 to nearly $20 billion by the end of the decade. Read More

Remote Threat 

Remote work and a more mobile professional class will increase the speed and scope of New York's ongoing out migration. Read More

In Pandemic Recovery, New York’s Tax Base Is More Fragile Than Ever

New York's exceptionally wealthy state tax base is also exceptionally fragile, due to its heavy dependence on the highly volatile (and portable) investment-driven incomes of Wall Street workers and fund managers. Read More

The Numbers Debunk Cuomo’s SALT Gripes

For the better part of three years now, Gov. Cuomo has been pounding SALT — the federal income-tax deduction for state and local taxes. Read More

‘Super-rich’ may balk at NY taxes, but will they walk?

E.J. McMahon, research director at the Empire Center for Public Policy, had presented estimates to the joint legislative fiscal committees earlier this year on the potential consequences of departures. He predicted that if the state lost 10% of residents with median adjusted gross income of more than $10 million, New York would lose $265 million in tax revenue, more than the entire state-funded budget for the Department of Environmental Conservation. (The total state budget is $175 billion.) Read More

New Yorkers fleeing for Florida more than any other state

There has also been declining enrollment at New York's public colleges, mainly at its community colleges. At public schools, the 2.6 million students is the lowest in nearly 30 years, according to the Empire Center for New York State Policy. Read More

Florida governor meets with NYC businesses amid Amazon fallout

Government watchdog E.J. McMahon, of the Empire Center, warned that the Amazon ordeal would be noticed by other firms. “The Amazon fiasco definitely sent a signal, and it’s not a good signal from multiple angles,” McMahon said. “Governor DeSantis couldn’t have picked a better time to work on poaching New York businesses, especially high earners in finance. More than a few will no doubt find it tempting to at least listen to Florida’s pitch.” Read More